Predictions for California’s 2026 Fire Season
Minimal fire concerns until late 2026
In recent months, Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles counties received 5–9x more rainfall than normal for this time of year. With all that rain, experts are signaling that the region’s fire season is essentially over for 2025. Heavy storms have soaked landscapes from the coast to the mountains, dramatically increasing moisture in soils and vegetation – key factors that suppress the large, fast-moving wildfires typical of dry months.
According to meteorologists, moisture levels in dead and live fuels are now well above critical thresholds, meaning conditions that fuel big fires have eased significantly. With this shift, officials don’t expect significant wildfire activity until well into 2026 – likely not until spring when grasses and brush dry again. However, experts caution that unpredictable weather could still bring isolated fire risk if warm, dry winds return before sustained wet conditions set in.